2016-2017 Winter Outlook

Dateline: Halloween 2016

This will probably lead to some controversy, as the truth sometimes does. I am compelled to write about the upcoming winter season and what kind of weather it will bring.

The data I use for this forecast varies, and includes several maps of things most people don't care about or understand, So they will not be included. I also research and track several parameters with fancy acronyms like PDO, AMO, ENSO, SST's and others. I know, blah blah blah.

I have read and considered the various folklore, almanacs and official forecasts, some of which carry more weight than others. I've looked back at recent forecasts and compared skill levels. I've spent considerable time this month on research and study.

The official "word on the street" is warmer and dryer than average due to a weak La Nina. This is where the controversy begins.

First off all, the La Nina/El Nino effect on Northwest Arkansas is virtually zero, as I have pointed out before with 50 years of daily temperature and precipitation reports. There are certain trends elsewhere, but NWA is in a belt of weather that does not significantly trend in either direction for either scenario. That is a fact.

There are other far more important global conditions that influence the weather here. But how they interact, and what the overall effect is, is not only complicated but anecdotal; For instance it snows a lot here when x and y are this and that. But nobody claims to really know when the jet stream will move, it just does it when x and y are this and that. This is an oversimplification of the fact that most of our official forecasts are based on history with little real skill at predicting the future.

Here is the kicker. At no point in any of you or your ancestors lives (pretend forever) has the level of CO2 in the puny layer of air we breath been as high as it is right now. Like it or not, CO2 traps some heat on earth from escaping the planet. Fortunately, oceans absorb some of both. The point is this: There exists no record of any kind for forecasting weather with the current atmosphere.

The good news is that if this planet wasn't really good at keeping things balanced, we would not be having this little blog about it. So short term catastrophe seems not super likely.

So my forecast? You still want it? It very well might not snow a single time for the next 8 months in Northwest Arkansas. Clearly, a staggering warming trend in under way. Another possibility is a brutally harsh and snowy winter that suddenly shows up "out of nowhere". What is more certain, and this is the bad news, is that we are going to be rewriting a whole bunch of weather records. 

I'm not a big fan of "surprises".  So I'm doing what I can, and encouraging others, to plan ahead by trying to keep the climate of this planet close to where it is today. It's really the most important job you have, to keep the environment safe for the future. Just because it demands sacrifice, requires  some deep thinking, and is kind of gloomy doesn't mean Climate Change is a hoax. Take it from those, like me, that are trying to sell absolutely nothing.