Quick Blog About My Maps

My personal love for all things weather related comes from my childhood days of always wanting to know how things work. But I grew up in Arizona. Fast forward to 2005 when I moved to Arkansas. I didn't know a thing about a single component to severe weather. My first spring here, a couple of rowdy storms and tornado warnings caught my attention. I was hooked.

Since then, a near obsession has taken place. I have learned a few things. The last couple years I've harnessed the power of the internet and modern programming languages (OK, Python, really) to download and analyze data based on my knowledge of how things work. It's been fun. And eye-opening.

I've received tons of help from many people, especially professionals from both government and media meteorologists as well as others on social media.

And then, it hit me. Last night really. Weather forecasting maps are a problem. It's been said before, argued about on social media. Don't trust this map or something of the sort. But why? Every meteorologist uses them.

Here is why weather maps are a problem. Weather maps plot a single value on a single point. Be it snowfall or temperature or rain, almost every map enables one to zoom in and see the value of the point.

 I have learned over time that the actual value of a single point on a weather map, and you can pick any of the parameters you like, or any model, isn't a number but, and this is key, a range of numbers.

A single number is the function output, yes, but it's true value is a range. 

As models have improved, in both resolution and physics, this range has decreased.

But the number given is still somewhere inside a range which increases with time.

I'll still make and tweet these maps. But know this: They are almost never right. They are only what they are. A dart throw somewhere towards the dartboard.

Meanwhile, pay attention to the National Weather Service. They are really good at outlining the range of scenarios you will encounter with the weather. But you have to actually read the forecast. 

Cheers!

Steve